Macro Regime

Five binary signals derived from FRED data. Each reads risk-on or risk-off. Their balance determines the overall regime bias. A quick gut-check on whether macro conditions favor or disfavor risk assets.

The Five Signals

VIX levelBelow 20 → risk-on · above 20 → risk-off (VIXCLS)
Yield curvePositive (10Y > 2Y) → risk-on · inverted → risk-off (T10Y2Y)
HY credit spreadBelow 4% → risk-on · above 4% → risk-off (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
USD trend (30d)Weakening dollar → risk-on · strengthening → risk-off (DTWEXBGS)
Breakeven inflation1–3% range → risk-on · outside range → risk-off (T10YIE)
Bias rule: ≥70% bullish → Risk-on · ≤40% bullish → Risk-off · otherwise Mixed

firma show regime

$firma show regime
Macro Regime
Bias:  Risk-on bias  (5 of 5 signals risk-on)

✓  VIX 19.31 (moderate)
✓  10Y − 2Y +0.53% (normal)
✓  HY OAS 2.86% (very tight)
✓  USD -2.32% 30d (weak)
✓  Breakeven 2.42% (anchored)

Each signal is a binary risk-on / risk-off heuristic over a single FRED series.
≥70% bullish → Risk-on bias  ·  ≤40% → Risk-off bias  ·  otherwise Mixed
Source: FRED  ·  Not investment advice
Requires a FRED API key. Set it with firma config set fred-key <key>. Pure descriptive heuristic. Not investment advice.

With Claude

Claude Desktop · firma MCP connected

You

Should I be in risk-on or risk-off mode right now?

Claude

All five signals are risk-on. VIX is moderate, the curve is positive, HY spreads are very tight at 2.86%, USD has weakened, and inflation expectations are anchored. This historically favors staying invested in growth assets. But your 74% TSLA concentration means a bad earnings or regulatory headline could override any macro signal.

MIT License