Economic Stress Index

A single 0–100 score that summarizes the current level of economic stress, computed from five FRED indicators. Low is calm. High means the macro environment is under strain.

How It's Computed

Each of the five components is scored on a 0–20 scale based on its historical percentile and direction relative to a neutral threshold. The scores are summed to produce a total out of 100.

Yield Curve (10Y–2Y)Inversion signals recession risk (T10Y2Y)

Bank Spread (10Y–3M)Alt inversion measure. Often leads credit tightening (T10Y3M)

VIXEquity market volatility / fear gauge (VIXCLS)

Financial StressSt. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index. Composite (STLFSI4)

Initial Jobless ClaimsWeekly unemployment claims. Labor market stress (ICSA)

< 20Low: calm environment

20–40Moderate: watch for deterioration

40–60Elevated: caution warranted

60–80Severe: significant macro headwinds

≥ 80Critical: systemic stress level

firma show stress

$firma show stress

Stress Score  4 / 100  (Low)

COMPONENT	VALUE	SCORE	WEIGHT

Yield Curve (10y-2y)	0.53	0	23.5%
Bank Spread (10y-3m)	0.62	0	17.6%
Volatility (VIX)	19.31	7	23.5%
Financial Stress (STLFSI4)	−0.76	4	23.5%
Initial Jobless Claims	214k	11	11.8%

<20 Low · 20–40 Moderate · 40–60 Elevated · 60–80 Severe · ≥80 Critical
Source: FRED · Not investment advice

Requires a FRED API key. Set it with firma config set fred-key <key>. Data is fetched live on each run (not cached). Pure descriptive metric. Not investment advice.

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You

How stressed is the economy right now?

Claude

Stress is 4/100 · Low. The yield curve is positive, bank spread is healthy, and financial stress is negative at −0.76. VIX at 19.31 contributes a small amount (7/20), and jobless claims at 214k add 11/20. But both are well within normal ranges. This is about as calm as macro gets.