Macro
A curated snapshot of 8 key macroeconomic indicators from FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data), updated daily, so you always know the context your portfolio is operating in.
Why It Matters
Fear index
VIX above 30 signals elevated uncertainty. Your portfolio moves more on macro news when VIX is high. Knowing the baseline helps you separate signal from noise.
Rate environment
The 10Y Treasury yield is the discount rate for equities. A rising 10Y compresses growth stock valuations. The yield curve (10Y minus 2Y) is a reliable recession signal when inverted.
Currency impact
If your home currency is KRW or JPY, USD strength directly affects your real returns. Firma shows the current FX rate and how it has moved over the past 30 and 90 days.
firma show macro
Pulls 8 curated FRED series and displays current value, 30-day delta,
90-day delta, 5-year average, and the current reading's historical
percentile over the past 5 years. The FX row is chosen automatically
based on your home currency (set via
firma config set currency KRW).
Results are cached to disk, so same-day runs are instant.$firma show macro
| INDICATOR | CURRENT | 30d Δ | 90d Δ | 5y AVG | 5y %ile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIX | 19.31 | −11.74 | +3.16 | 19.22 | p52 |
| 10Y Treasury Yield | 4.34% | −10bp | +12bp | 3.55% | p85 |
| Yield Curve (10y-2y) | 0.53% | −3bp | −13bp | 0.13% | p72 |
| USD Index (Broad) | 118.08 | −2.32% | +0.02% | 120.36 | p41 |
| HY Credit Spread | 2.86% | −56bp | +17bp | 3.31% | p31 |
| 10Y Breakeven Inflation | 2.42% | +11bp | +10bp | 2.36% | p60 |
| Fed Funds Rate | 3.64% | 0 | 0 | 3.41% | p64 |
| As of 2026-04-23 · Source: FRED · Home currency: USD | |||||
Requires a free FRED API key. Register at
fred.stlouisfed.org
and set it with
firma config set fred-key <key>.
Results are cached at ~/.firma/cache/macro-YYYY-MM-DD-<currency>.json.Reading the 5y %ile Column
The 5y %ile (5-year percentile) shows where today's reading sits relative to
the past 5 years of daily FRED observations for that series.
≥ p80Historically elevated. Today's value is higher than 80% of daily readings over the last 5 years. Shown in red.
p60 – p80Above average, somewhat elevated relative to recent history.
p20 – p60Normal range, within typical historical bounds. Shown in grey.
≤ p20Historically suppressed. Today's value is lower than 80% of recent readings. Shown in green.
Example: 10Y Treasury at p85 means the yield is higher today than it was on
85% of trading days over the last 5 years. The rate environment is tight by
recent-history standards. HY Credit Spread at p31 means spreads are tighter
than usual, so credit markets are relatively calm.
Percentiles are computed from the same 5-year FRED series already fetched for
the other columns, so there are no extra API calls. They are relative to recent
history only. A p85 reading in a low-rate decade is different from p85 in a
high-rate decade.
Indicators
VIXCBOE Volatility Index, the market fear gauge (VIXCLS)
10Y Treasury10-year US Treasury yield, the equity discount rate (DGS10)
Yield Curve10Y minus 2Y spread, a recession indicator (T10Y2Y)
USD IndexTrade-weighted dollar strength (DTWEXBGS)
HY Credit SpreadHigh-yield over Treasury, a credit stress indicator (BAMLH0A0HYM2)
Breakeven InflationMarket-implied 10Y inflation expectation (T10YIE)
Fed Funds RateEffective federal funds rate (FEDFUNDS)
FX vs home currencyKRW/USD, JPY/USD, EUR/USD, etc. Driven by
currency config.Related Commands
firma show stressEconomic Stress Index (0–100) from 5 FRED series with per-component breakdownfirma show regimeMacro regime bias (Risk-on / Mixed / Risk-off) from 5 binary signalsThese two commands read from the same FRED data.
firma brief shows
a one-line summary of both alongside your portfolio. Run stress and regime
for the full breakdown.Options
firma show macroUse cached result if availablefirma show macro --refreshBypass cache and re-fetch from FREDfirma show macro --jsonMachine-readable outputWith Claude
In Claude Desktop,
show_macro returns the same snapshot.
Two additional MCP tools give Claude unrestricted FRED access:fetch_fred_seriesFetch any of the 800K+ FRED series by ID (e.g.
UNRATE, DEXKOUS)search_fred_seriesSearch the catalog by keyword when you don't know the series ID
Claude Desktop · firma MCP connected
You
Is now a good time to add more to my equity positions?
Claude
Macro context is broadly supportive right now. VIX at 19.31 is moderate, near the 5-year average of 19.22. The yield curve is positive at +0.53% (10Y minus 2Y), HY credit spreads have tightened significantly (−56bp over 30d to 2.86%), and the USD has weakened 2.3% over 30 days. The stress index is at 4/100 (Low) and all 5 regime signals are risk-on, historically a favorable backdrop for growth equities. If you're adding, macro conditions aren't the reason to hold back. Your main risk is single-stock concentration in TSLA, not the macro environment.